PRAYERS and THOUGHTS for those impacted by Helene....we never expected this....

[Tom Cherry]

I know we have a LOT of members that are or will be in the path of Helene.  I have many family members, friends and former work associates that are "Hunkering DOWN" and hoping for the best.

As BEST I can pull up and am NOT a Weather WHIZ or such....  The path is NOW 80% over Tallahasse...  

https://data.tallahassee.com/storm/?sph=al092024#spaghetti

This is one of the best charts or paths that I found.  There are 20 different models.  I blew this one up.  Too many colors and overlays...but the NOVICE in me counted FOUR (4) that were going further EAST.  BUT, bear in mind...the NE loop or quadrant, I THINK, is where the worst wins and rain are.  I know that for a FACT when Fran hit Raleigh in 1996....an event that I shan't ever forget.

USAToday is predicting a CAT 4....upgraded from the CAT 3.  Again....not an expert....just summarizing.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/09/26/hurricane-helene-thursday-live-updates/75384964007/

I blog and participate in a "Sports" site for NCSU, my Alma Mater. We, NC STATE, have a great Weather Sciences department and many members work for the NWS or have field experience.  We have OFF SPORTS topics....that are timely and such...  COVID had over 150 PAGES of posts....so we are not "Jock Sniffers".  LOL.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

The one above is the best that we have found and our "weather people" agree.  If you click on it....there are at least 12 "icons" and they are easily to understand and give you about every forecast parameter one would need.

From the Staff's viewpoint....lets keep this topic going...according to the rules.  That also would include posting any negative or critical  comments on how the dedicated first responders and the folks on the ground are doing and keep it from being a "media war" event as one Hurricane became.  I THINK everyone understands that.  Post any reports or info or "Shouts out" to other members....

Field reports are also informative.  Keep it above board and positive, but factual and let's not SECOND GUESS nor be critical.  The hope and intent is that individuals and officials and such have learned a great deal since Sept, 2005 and that there is NOT the massive loss of life or injuries.  Structures can be rebuilt....lives can NOT be replaced.

Prayers for all...the ones in the path and the ones out there risking their own life to assist and help them recover...

 

[Dr4Film]

What concerns me is the possible catastrophic 20 foot storm surge along the coast in conjuction with the Cat 4 or 5 winds.

There will be lives lost if that happens.

[96 EVO]

1 hour ago, Dr4Film said:

What concerns me is the possible catastrophic 20 foot storm surge along the coast in conjuction with the Cat 4 or 5 winds.

There will be lives lost if that happens.

Hopefully nobody was stupid enough to stay in that area!

It's not like they didn't have a few days warning!

[jacwjames]

We've been watching the weather channel, this is a fast moving hurricane, not sure where all the people could have or would have gone.   And the storm is expected to be a Cat 2 all they way up into GA. 

I'm in TN and it is expected to be a Cat 1 with heavy rain, news reported the TVA is expecting the Douglas Reservior to reach record levels and they had it drawn down ~20' below normal since we had been in extreme drought.  The whole E TN area is under flood watch.

So where do you go???

My SIL, her husband, granddaughter and son are hunkered down in Tallahassee.  In that area the large live Oak trees are the biggest threat, their house is surrounded by them.   My wife is maintaining a communication with them.  They also have a house on Shell Point, it is older so not elevated very high, I'll be surprised if it survives. 

 

So yes, prayers for the families in the path of the hurricane. 

[Ivan K]

We were still in South Georgia yesterday and moved from the path through Atlanta and I-20 to Alabama where not even rain is currently predicted here. I really braced for huge traffic but it was smooth sailing even through Atlanta. I would have expected a lot of people on the run from it towards west. Maybe I-10 was busier but I gave up on the coast section of the trip for now. Hope all that had to stay for whatever reason are safe.

[cbr046]

We like to watch 'Ryan Hall, Y'all' on YouTube.  https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYall  In major events like these he'll go live stream and cover the event continuously and thoroughly.  Otherwise he'll produce forecasts for weather events that impact a particular region.  When the country is 'quiet' so is he so it's not like the Weather Channel.  He's offline now (8:20 Fri am) but his last live stream went from Thu 11:30pm - Fri 2:15am when the eye went ashore over Perry FL. 

The storm is currently about 50 miles East of us passing over Athens GA with a (still) Northerly path.  This is considerably East of the forecasted path.  It's breezy with gusts that make me look up at the trees.  We momentarily lost power, not even long enough to reset all the clocks.  Not everyone will have been as fortunate. 

No doubt this is a major storm causing horrendous amounts of damage, including spin-off tornadoes that are popping up all over the place. 

Stay safe everyone.

- bob

 

[Les Hurdle]

Never been through one of those but have been burned out of our house [Bobcat fire] then flooded out, now this past week the Bridge fire in So Cal.  smoked out.

Where I live the mantra is. YOYO.  You're On your Own

[jacwjames]

9 hours ago, Ivan K said:

We were still in South Georgia yesterday and moved from the path through Atlanta and I-20 to Alabama where not even rain is currently predicted here. I really braced for huge traffic but it was smooth sailing even through Atlanta. I would have expected a lot of people on the run from it towards west. Maybe I-10 was busier but I gave up on the coast section of the trip for now. Hope all that had to stay for whatever reason are safe.

Sounds like you made the right decision but living in a house on wheels is easier to move the a SB house.

 

My wife heard from my SIL last night, the had a big live oak come down across their house in Tallahassee.  Sounds bad.  Their next door neighbor is a tree cutter and the hired him for $7500 to remove the tree and try and tarp the roof.   They've had reports from the beach community in Shell Point, storm surge was only ~3 ft so hopefully their house there has limited damage. 

I live ~25 miles east of Knoxville and we are seeing high winds and some rain.  Currently without power.  The local Coop does a pretty good job of getting the power restored but in this case it could take a while considering the area they are dealing with.  From the outage map about 25% of the customers are without power.   At some point I'll make a decision to pull the coach in front of the house, start the generator, and run extension cords in to power the refrigerators and some lights.  I always park it with a full tank of fuel so we could last a week if needed.  

It is a fast moving storm that is doing quite a bit of damage in a short time and the utilities will have a job getting all the power restored and local authorities getting the down trees and debris cleaned up. 

Be Safe

[dl_racing427]

Prayers to all in this storm's path.
Hopefully most have heeded the warnings and left the danger zones.

God Bless. 🙏

[Tom Cherry]

Friends west of Brevard, NC got or are getting hit hard now.  Have three major trees down.  Two in driveway.  His Standby Whole House Genny would no crank.  After a lot of fiddling and getting soaked.  The Battery was dead.  DUH, code required that the outdoor outlet for the 3 stage (same as our Inverter/charger) was plugged into the GFCI.  Power had blipped a few months ago.  The “run me weekly” switch was NOT on AUTO….DEAD Cranking battery.  DUHHHHH.

Now on Genny.  Eye is moving right over Brevard….they are WEST, fortunately.  Brevard is about 40 miles EAST of Asheville.  Yesterday the Biltmore Village complex, entrance to Biltmore flooded.  NOT GOOD….

[vipeboy2000]

Starting the game with insurance.  We were not in it but glad to see it hold up decently well for a pretty large tree. 

[Dr4Film]

So very sorry for your loss. Thankfully no one was injured. The death toll for this hurricane in states other than Florida where it made landfall is astronomical. It is now at the 120 mark and rising.

Edited Monday at 06:43 PM by Dr4Film

[jacwjames]

Sorry this happened.  Hope insurance treats you right. 

My SIL had a large live oak limb fall across their house, your coach held up better then their house. 

 

[Steve P]

Very sad indeed... and it looks like the tree nearly got another MH next to you too.

It was clearly a beautiful Dynasty Squire.  Sorry you are going thru this.  Do you tink it might be rebuildable or is the loss total?  Keep us posted on the insurance company and their response and fairness.

I shudder...

[Cajunboy1959]

So sorry for your loss. We had similar issues in South Louisiana a few years ago. We got an independent appraiser working for us and we got full coverage instead of what the insurance company offered. Take care and God bless.

 

[Mi Bill]

Very sorry for your loss. We are glad you were not in it! Hope the insurance company is helpful.

MI Bill

[det944]

Sorry to see this beautiful coach damaged. I am impressed how well it held up with such a large tree though. I hope the insurance company treats you fairly and settled in a timely manner.

[vipeboy2000]

4 minutes ago, det944 said:

Sorry to see this beautiful coach damaged. I am impressed how well it held up with such a large tree though. I hope the insurance company treats you fairly and settled in a timely manner.

Same,  when the time comes another monaco with the steel house will be the one

[Tom Cherry]

https://www.wral.com/story/helene-s-devastation-in-nc-see-aerial-views-of-cities-completely-underwater-mudslides-washing-out-highways/21649029/

I KNOW that many members have lived or experienced floods, tornados, hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, sink holes and such. 

BUT, on a personal note as well as a Moderating note...I have changed the topic title and also moved over a post. 

I have been through Fran in NC in 1996.  I have friends in the NC Mountains that are PREPPERS.  They have more food than one can imagine. They have freeze dried foods.  Their concerns and whys are not what I want to address.  They live in a rural mountain community....much like my "urbanized" development.  Except they are on a mountain top and the houses are on private gravel and dirt roads. They have limited internet access and are a notch above Dial-Up except for the residents with StarLink.  No Hughes dishes...I think.

They have a small full house generator.  It bit the dust yesterday and I've troubleshot it remotely and from the manual.  The "innards" of the genny have failed.  Capacitors or Diodes or Windings or 5 other "thingies".  This is NOT a fuse on the control board or an ATS.  It is DEAD and will be so. Fortunately they have a small gas powered one...HOPEFULLY with enough surge capacity to start their deep well pump.  We have a plan....much like the Apollo 13 Mission.  Start and get pressure....YES the Pump will start and NOT trip the breakers and then measure the Voltage...and HOPE it OK to run.

SO, I have been busy....and a LOT of what I have learned here and in helping others is being used.

OK....you might know my "state of mind"  But we recently spent two weeks in the NC Mountains and visited with them and just "GOT OUT". The places we were are GONE.  The CG's were all by a RIVER.  They are devastated. I can remember the morning after Fran and cutting trees so neighbors could get out.  We did NOT have FLOOD WATERS.  My friends are on the TOP.  But, their 2 lane road...maybe a few miles had 40 to 50 trees blocking it...

I have been in contact with others that live up there and my family is from the foothills of NC, so they are OK.

BUT....if you look at the aerial videos in the link.....it is beyond comprehension to me.  I had to rescue my mom when Hurricane Hugo hit and she was without power for 2 weeks....  SADLY....this storm was unpredictable and as one of blogging buddy's, a "NC STATE Meteorologist Grad" said.  It was a phenomen beyond his trained belief.  It was like Helene sucked up every milliter of the Gulf and then carried, undisturbed, up to the NC Mountains and then panicked and DUMPED IT ALL OUT.

The weather professionals will do their "research"...but this rivals the great Flood of NC in 1916....a tragedy that my grandparents talked about and they did NOT know the full impact...as we do now.

I have merged a new topic to keep this on track....SORRY for the loss of a beautiful MH.

I also would reach out to any member that is so inclined and supports relief efforts for such tragedies to consider the plight in Western NC. The "assistance" is coming in as fast as the PTB can get fully mobilized....but this surpassed, I believe, their wildest expectations....so I am hopeful that all the resources will be targeted...and that is NOT being demeaning to the damages in FL and GA and NC and TN and such. I have relatives who were 30 miles WEST of the center when it hit FL and they said it was a "PIECE of CAKE" compared to when a storm hit them and the eye was 30 miles WEST of them. 

SO, if you are of a mind to help out....then find a GOOD AGENCY that will funnel your donations to help.  The Samaratan's Purse (Bill Graham's Foundation) of the United Methodist Church - Western Conference are two that I KNOW and have verified, will funnel every penny in. I made my decision....and now feel that I should be more generous or caring.

Sorry for being slightly emotional.  We are fortunate in Raleigh....we had a LOT of rain....in my area, we have had over 32" from storms and fronts in the last 90 days. 

Thanks for letting me post this.....and remember all those impacted in your prayers and do what you can if you see fit.  I have memories of Chimney Rock with my kids and Lake Lure and took my 9 YO daughter to see where Dirty Dancing was filmed....My parents often took us to the mountains....so I know too well the impact.  FWIW, the wind speed from Helen was clocked at over 100 MPH at the top of Mount Mitchell.  I walked up there a month ago and it was 20 and that made an impact.  

 

[Les Hurdle]

Hi Tom,

Yes, many of us have endured 'Mother Nature'. My wife and I were in the 1994 Northridge earthquake.  We were 1/2 mile from the epicenter.  According to officials, houses in our area rose up and down by as much as 15 feet.  My wife and I sat in the driveway  and watched.......... quite the ride.

https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes/northridge#:~:text=On January 17%2C 1994%2C at,heart attacks) and injured thousands.

I wish all those involved with Helene fast recovery.

 

L

 

[Dr4Film]

2 hours ago, Les Hurdle said:

Hi Tom,

Yes, many of us have endured 'Mother Nature'. My wife and I were in the 1994 Northridge earthquake.  We were 1/2 mile from the epicenter.  According to officials, houses in our area rose up and down by as much as 15 feet.  My wife and I sat in the driveway  and watched.......... quite the ride.

https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes/northridge#:~:text=On January 17%2C 1994%2C at,heart attacks) and injured thousands.

I wish all those involved with Helene fast recovery.

I also was in the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. However, I was over the hill in West Hollywood. I had just taken a job in October 1994 at the CFI Film laboratory in Hollywood. That was the most terrifying 40 some seconds of my life. In West Hollywood we didn't experience the UP and DOWN with the SIDE to SIDE shaking that you had over in Northridge. We had just the severe shaking. I jumped out of bed and hung onto my Tiffany lamp sitting on my tall dresser and just prayed, please stop, please stop. Got dressed and went outside as did many others on the street. One of the first things I remember someone saying was, "wow, look at all of the stars!" while transformers were exploding all over the place.

[Les Hurdle]

liquefaction at work

[Steve P]

@Tom Cherry and others - I'm right there with you.  Our troubles in NE Georgia due to Helene were almost insignificant compared to NC.  Places we love and were planning to visit during October are wiped out, businesses washed away, and dear friends and acquaintances without power, water, food, or communications in staggering numbers.  Catastrophic devastation barely begins to describe it.  The feeling of helplessness is almost mind-numbing, but each of us can make a difference in the quality of life for those impacted.  With the brain cells we have, we decided to use the God-given resources we have been blessed with to support Samaritan's Purse, and Send Relief (an arm of the North American Mission Board), both of whom are organizations with integrity and a proven track record. Furthermore, we set up a DAF (donor advised fund) about a year ago, and have been using that as the means of channeling contributions to those organizations.  It's essentially a foundation set up thru Schwab in our case, but could equally have been thru Fidelity or other brokerage.  Ours is the "No Other Name foundation" (a reference to Scripture that is obvious).  You can set up your own DAF or, if you wish, contribute to ours or some other DAF, or open your own.  It has the same tax benefit to the individual making the contribution regardless of which way you choose to do it.  A chat with your financial advisor will help clarify the rules.  There are also Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD's) one can use to offset RMD's if you are of the age those are mandated. Using the most tax-advantaged mechanisms for giving is simply to make the funds we have go farther (to the charitable organization, rather than to the gubment).  

Above all, pray for those who are struggling to survive an unprecedented and nightmarish weather event.  As a former backpacking enthusiast, I have witnessed how debilitating dysentery can be.  And without medical intervention, well, it can be life-threatening. 

[Agpopp]

Sad for everyone involved.  We stayed at Mama Gerties a few years ago go and went to Biltmore, Lake Lure and Chimney Rock, beautiful place to live. The images are unreal,  worst floods I have ever seen. 

[Newcsn]

16 hours ago, Steve P said:

@Tom Cherry and others - I'm right there with you.  Our troubles in NE Georgia due to Helene were almost insignificant compared to NC.  Places we love and were planning to visit during October are wiped out, businesses washed away, and dear friends and acquaintances without power, water, food, or communications in staggering numbers.  Catastrophic devastation barely begins to describe it.  The feeling of helplessness is almost mind-numbing, but each of us can make a difference in the quality of life for those impacted.  With the brain cells we have, we decided to use the God-given resources we have been blessed with to support Samaritan's Purse, and Send Relief (an arm of the North American Mission Board), both of whom are organizations with integrity and a proven track record. Furthermore, we set up a DAF (donor advised fund) about a year ago, and have been using that as the means of channeling contributions to those organizations.  It's essentially a foundation set up thru Schwab in our case, but could equally have been thru Fidelity or other brokerage.  Ours is the "No Other Name foundation" (a reference to Scripture that is obvious).  You can set up your own DAF or, if you wish, contribute to ours or some other DAF, or open your own.  It has the same tax benefit to the individual making the contribution regardless of which way you choose to do it.  A chat with your financial advisor will help clarify the rules.  There are also Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD's) one can use to offset RMD's if you are of the age those are mandated. Using the most tax-advantaged mechanisms for giving is simply to make the funds we have go farther (to the charitable organization, rather than to the gubment).  

Above all, pray for those who are struggling to survive an unprecedented and nightmarish weather event.  As a former backpacking enthusiast, I have witnessed how debilitating dysentery can be.  And without medical intervention, well, it can be life-threatening. 

It's a privilege being part of this group and seeing our members not only care for their rigs, but more importantly, care for one another. You guys exhibit an eagerness toward generosity - both with knowledge & resources. It's also clear that our members place a high priority on doing things as efficiently & effectively as possible. Thank you for being these kind of people!

And, thank you @Steve P for pointing out a couple efficient/highly effective ways we can assist those impacted by the hurricane. If anyone is interested in finding out how efficient a relief agency is (what percentage of your donation actually gets to those in need) I'd encourage you to visit https://www.charitynavigator.org/  It's a fantastic tool to analyze numerous aspects of a charitable organization & see how efficiently they deploy your act of generosity.

@Steve P has mentioned two very efficient & highly effective (and integrous) relief agencies:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/

https://www.sendrelief.org/

I would add to this: Convoy of Hope  https://convoyofhope.org/ (We've personally served with & supported them for years) 

And, as for a DAF (Donor Advised Fund), they're amazing - and not difficult to setup & utilize. If you haven't yet, check it out!

Thanks again for being such a generous group & for continuing to pray for those who are struggling with this disaster!