PRAYERS and THOUGHTS for those in Helene's path or will be impacted.

[Tom Cherry]

I know we have a LOT of members that are or will be in the path of Helene.  I have many family members, friends and former work associates that are "Hunkering DOWN" and hoping for the best.

As BEST I can pull up and am NOT a Weather WHIZ or such....  The path is NOW 80% over Tallahasse...  

https://data.tallahassee.com/storm/?sph=al092024#spaghetti

This is one of the best charts or paths that I found.  There are 20 different models.  I blew this one up.  Too many colors and overlays...but the NOVICE in me counted FOUR (4) that were going further EAST.  BUT, bear in mind...the NE loop or quadrant, I THINK, is where the worst wins and rain are.  I know that for a FACT when Fran hit Raleigh in 1996....an event that I shan't ever forget.

USAToday is predicting a CAT 4....upgraded from the CAT 3.  Again....not an expert....just summarizing.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/09/26/hurricane-helene-thursday-live-updates/75384964007/

I blog and participate in a "Sports" site for NCSU, my Alma Mater. We, NC STATE, have a great Weather Sciences department and many members work for the NWS or have field experience.  We have OFF SPORTS topics....that are timely and such...  COVID had over 150 PAGES of posts....so we are not "Jock Sniffers".  LOL.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

The one above is the best that we have found and our "weather people" agree.  If you click on it....there are at least 12 "icons" and they are easily to understand and give you about every forecast parameter one would need.

From the Staff's viewpoint....lets keep this topic going...according to the rules.  That also would include posting any negative or critical  comments on how the dedicated first responders and the folks on the ground are doing and keep it from being a "media war" event as one Hurricane became.  I THINK everyone understands that.  Post any reports or info or "Shouts out" to other members....

Field reports are also informative.  Keep it above board and positive, but factual and let's not SECOND GUESS nor be critical.  The hope and intent is that individuals and officials and such have learned a great deal since Sept, 2005 and that there is NOT the massive loss of life or injuries.  Structures can be rebuilt....lives can NOT be replaced.

Prayers for all...the ones in the path and the ones out there risking their own life to assist and help them recover...

 

[Dr4Film]

What concerns me is the possible catastrophic 20 foot storm surge along the coast in conjuction with the Cat 4 or 5 winds.

There will be lives lost if that happens.

[96 EVO]

1 hour ago, Dr4Film said:

What concerns me is the possible catastrophic 20 foot storm surge along the coast in conjuction with the Cat 4 or 5 winds.

There will be lives lost if that happens.

Hopefully nobody was stupid enough to stay in that area!

It's not like they didn't have a few days warning!

[jacwjames]

We've been watching the weather channel, this is a fast moving hurricane, not sure where all the people could have or would have gone.   And the storm is expected to be a Cat 2 all they way up into GA. 

I'm in TN and it is expected to be a Cat 1 with heavy rain, news reported the TVA is expecting the Douglas Reservior to reach record levels and they had it drawn down ~20' below normal since we had been in extreme drought.  The whole E TN area is under flood watch.

So where do you go???

My SIL, her husband, granddaughter and son are hunkered down in Tallahassee.  In that area the large live Oak trees are the biggest threat, their house is surrounded by them.   My wife is maintaining a communication with them.  They also have a house on Shell Point, it is older so not elevated very high, I'll be surprised if it survives. 

 

So yes, prayers for the families in the path of the hurricane. 

[Ivan K]

We were still in South Georgia yesterday and moved from the path through Atlanta and I-20 to Alabama where not even rain is currently predicted here. I really braced for huge traffic but it was smooth sailing even through Atlanta. I would have expected a lot of people on the run from it towards west. Maybe I-10 was busier but I gave up on the coast section of the trip for now. Hope all that had to stay for whatever reason are safe.

[cbr046]

We like to watch 'Ryan Hall, Y'all' on YouTube.  https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYall  In major events like these he'll go live stream and cover the event continuously and thoroughly.  Otherwise he'll produce forecasts for weather events that impact a particular region.  When the country is 'quiet' so is he so it's not like the Weather Channel.  He's offline now (8:20 Fri am) but his last live stream went from Thu 11:30pm - Fri 2:15am when the eye went ashore over Perry FL. 

The storm is currently about 50 miles East of us passing over Athens GA with a (still) Northerly path.  This is considerably East of the forecasted path.  It's breezy with gusts that make me look up at the trees.  We momentarily lost power, not even long enough to reset all the clocks.  Not everyone will have been as fortunate. 

No doubt this is a major storm causing horrendous amounts of damage, including spin-off tornadoes that are popping up all over the place. 

Stay safe everyone.

- bob

 

[Les Hurdle]

Never been through one of those but have been burned out of our house [Bobcat fire] then flooded out, now this past week the Bridge fire in So Cal.  smoked out.

Where I live the mantra is. YOYO.  You're On your Own

[jacwjames]

9 hours ago, Ivan K said:

We were still in South Georgia yesterday and moved from the path through Atlanta and I-20 to Alabama where not even rain is currently predicted here. I really braced for huge traffic but it was smooth sailing even through Atlanta. I would have expected a lot of people on the run from it towards west. Maybe I-10 was busier but I gave up on the coast section of the trip for now. Hope all that had to stay for whatever reason are safe.

Sounds like you made the right decision but living in a house on wheels is easier to move the a SB house.

 

My wife heard from my SIL last night, the had a big live oak come down across their house in Tallahassee.  Sounds bad.  Their next door neighbor is a tree cutter and the hired him for $7500 to remove the tree and try and tarp the roof.   They've had reports from the beach community in Shell Point, storm surge was only ~3 ft so hopefully their house there has limited damage. 

I live ~25 miles east of Knoxville and we are seeing high winds and some rain.  Currently without power.  The local Coop does a pretty good job of getting the power restored but in this case it could take a while considering the area they are dealing with.  From the outage map about 25% of the customers are without power.   At some point I'll make a decision to pull the coach in front of the house, start the generator, and run extension cords in to power the refrigerators and some lights.  I always park it with a full tank of fuel so we could last a week if needed.  

It is a fast moving storm that is doing quite a bit of damage in a short time and the utilities will have a job getting all the power restored and local authorities getting the down trees and debris cleaned up. 

Be Safe

[dl_racing427]

Prayers to all in this storm's path.
Hopefully most have heeded the warnings and left the danger zones.

God Bless. 🙏

[Tom Cherry]

Friends west of Brevard, NC got or are getting hit hard now.  Have three major trees down.  Two in driveway.  His Standby Whole House Genny would no crank.  After a lot of fiddling and getting soaked.  The Battery was dead.  DUH, code required that the outdoor outlet for the 3 stage (same as our Inverter/charger) was plugged into the GFCI.  Power had blipped a few months ago.  The “run me weekly” switch was NOT on AUTO….DEAD Cranking battery.  DUHHHHH.

Now on Genny.  Eye is moving right over Brevard….they are WEST, fortunately.  Brevard is about 40 miles EAST of Asheville.  Yesterday the Biltmore Village complex, entrance to Biltmore flooded.  NOT GOOD….